The Russian Expert Council considers it important to continue the creation of station modules ... as the basis of a future (international) earthquake prediction network through a complex using KaY-wave monitoring data ...
Corr. RAS, Honorary Member of IUGG,
Professor Alexey Vsevolodovich Nikolaev.
Global Earthquake Prediction System.
Throughout history, earthquakes, and the tsunamis associated with them, have been of the most tragic and challenging events for human kind to deal with. Even nowadays, thousands of people in disaster zones are becoming victims of severe earthquakes.
To prevent loss of life, different methods of forecasting are used, that append to various periods of time: from long-term forecast and seismic mapping to short-term and operational forecast.
For seismic mapping, it is needed to have knowledge of the tectonic history of earthquakes... In order for seismologists and builders to plan the seismic safety of buildings and structures, both long-term and medium-term forecasting are needed.
However, in order to save people's lives and reduce material loss during cataclysms (earthquakes, eruptions and tsunamis), accurate short-term and operational earthquake forecasting is necessary. The sustainment and possibilities of industry, transport and infrastructure, determine the accuracy of the forecast, and the requirements for its foresight on the earthquake.
A forecast is a prediction of the place and time of occurrence of a future earthquake with an indication of its possible magnitude on the surface of the Earth. A short-term and operational forecast is the basis for preserving the lives of people with a timely, systematic evacuation, and prevention of panic. Its “Primary Task” is to preserve the lives of children, schoolchildren, and citizens.
To reduce material losses, the preparation of infrastructure, transport, enterprises; their switch to a safe work regiment, in which an earthquake (and a possible tsunami) will cause the least amount of damage and destruction.
The short-term forecast is used to predict from hours to tens of hours, the operational forecast is used for hours – minutes before the earthquake.
Thus, the required accuracy for the short-term forecast: from several hours - hours to ten minutes.
To the operational (during the work of rescuers in the disaster area): dozens, to several minutes.
The price for mistakes is very high. A “false alarm”, if after taking all measures to minimize the number of casualties and material losses,
a predicted strong earthquake does not occur - the damage from the disruption of the rhythm of life and work of thousands of people can be very severe, and this also leads to a subsequent mistrust of forecasts and deaths in subsequent real earthquakes.
A “missed target,” when an earthquake was not predicted, is fraught not only with material loss, but also with possible human casualties.
This forces seismologists to be extremely careful when issuing (or not issuing) official warnings of impending danger to the authorities.
As a typical example, we can recall the “false alarm”, which was not actually false. In this instance, there was a false alarm and a “missed target” due to ignorance of the stages with which the anomalies of the precursor are associated. In Italy, in 2009, the “Radon method” showed a high anomaly, which portended a strong earthquake.
However, this precursor does not give the exact time and magnitude of a future earthquake. The first earthquake occurred on the evening of April 5, 2009 (magnitude around 5). Seismologists considered this to be the earthquake that the anomaly spoke of, and gave an “danger passed” ... Later that night, (only six hours later) a major earthquake of magnitude 6.3 occurred, which practically “swept away” the city of Aquila. 308 people died during the earthquake ... and one more death occurred during the aftershock due to the lack of an accurate operational forecast.
This is one of the most important issues of earthquake forecasting: dealing insufficient parameters of a future earthquake and supplying the government with inaccurate information for the actions, rescue and evacuation services.
Evacuations should be carried out in advance, and without panic, for more than 1 - 3 hours before the start of earthquake shocks by decision of the emergency departments.
In order to stop moving passenger trains, and trains with combustible and explosive substances, it is necessary to slowing down and stopping the trains at least 30 minutes - an hour before the earthquake, since it is impossible to stop the train instantly, and with the start of the earthquakes, there might occur destruction of transport infrastructure elements (rail track, bridges, tunnels, viaducts, subways, waterproofing cracks, etc.).
As the recent earthquake in the USA showed, during an earthquake of magnitude 6, the authorities should have been notified tens of hours before the future earthquake due to the need to reduce gas pressure in order to reduce the number of fires due to the destruction of gas pipelines ...
In order to prepare for a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, in order to save people's lives, evacuation of residents from homes, schools to pre-selected safe places without panic, it requires at least 3-5 hours of notice in advance, given that emergency forces need time for decision-making, mobilization and dispatching if necessary, and transport to the designated places.
This implies the need for the introduction of earthquake forecasting methods that can give an accurate forecast of the place, time, strength (these are the minimum requirements for the forecast) of a future earthquake, hours – tens of hours before the start of the earthquake. Therefore this poses very high demands on the accuracy of determining the predicted parameters.
At the rescue zone, there is great need of the knowledge about the aftershocks, is even with magnitude 3, since even small tremors can provoke shifts and be dangerous both to those who are being saved and to the rescuers themselves. In fact, they need a schedule of future shocks, several hours ahead - this imposes additional requirements for special conditions. From the above, the requirements for short-term and operational forecast of earthquakes follow.
1. The reliability of the forecast has to be 100%.
2. Advance of the forecast should be 1 - 5 days. Perhaps with a gradual refinement of the data. In rare cases, the lead can be from 1 to 3 hours.
3. The necessary sufficient accuracy for predicting the start time of the shocks: the error should not exceed 30 minutes - 1 hour, as this determines the necessary time for the start of evacuation and stopping of transport, production. In addition, it is important to know whether there will be subsequent shocks, how many there will be, at what magnitude. This imposes additional requirements on the separation of time anomalies between several earthquakes in the same zone.
4. The actions of the emergency departments towards the dangers of the future earthquake depend of the accuracy of the forecasted magnitude.
A method, which is proposed as the basis for a global network, is physically connected with a future specific earthquake, as a “train is depended on it’s schedule”. In the presence of the main working method, it is possible to use additional methods in order to extend the duration of the preliminary forecast.
In the process of searching for a reliable precursor of earthquakes, the author discovered an anomaly in the low-frequency gravitational-seismic wave, which moves along a converging ring front to the epicentre of the future earthquake. The correlation between the anomalies and the associated earthquakes is 0.99, which indicates the presence of a physical connection between the events.
The ratio of the distance between the sensor detecting the anomaly to the epicentre of the corresponding subsequent earthquake, to the time interval between the registration of the anomaly at the station and the time of the earthquake, is a constant related to the movement of the moon, the rotation of the earth, and the movement of the earth and moon around the sun. This constant: the velocity of the wave-front to the epicentre of the future earthquake: 100 km per hour.
As a result of a rigid causal relationship between the anomaly and the subsequent earthquake, with a sufficient number of stations (about 10) at which the transmitted wave anomaly is successively recorded, the reliability of the method reaches 100%.
The method was created in Haifa in the author’s private laboratory, and all examinations and tests were performed by government officials and experts from Israel, Russia, Europe and Australia. Forecasts of earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 6, which the author gave since 2006, were recorded in the Russian Expert Council and the Russian Emergencies Ministry.
In 2012, an interstate examination of the method and system was carried out on real-time forecasts of real earthquakes with more than 6 in magnitude. During the tests, 20 earthquakes were predicted in the Mediterranean Sea, the Middle East, Russia, Chile ... There was not a single false forecast.
The experts concluded that the discovery of the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave (KaY-wave), the “Heralds” precursor waves was confirmed, and real-time earthquake forecasts were highly rated. The set of methods proposed by the author is recommended for use in accurate short-term and operational earthquake prediction systems.
Based on the data presented, the Russian Expert Council considers it important to continue the creation of station modules ... as the basis for a future (international) earthquake prediction network through a complex using KaY-wave monitoring data ...
A. V. Nikolaev professor of geophysics.
Thus, the possibility of building an international (Global) network of short-term earthquake prediction based on KaY-wave monitoring stations was confirmed.
Advantage of the global forecast network:
With concrete examples, we can see how, thanks to the presence of stations located at a great distance from the site of the future strong earthquake, we are able to give an earlier forecast. For example: The 2013 Sea of Okhotsk earthquake. In an article by L. Dod, he writes: “Was there even one “clever man” who predicted a similar scenario for the development of events in Kamchatka? And the omniscient Internet gives an affirmative answer – It turned out to be Alexander Yagodin, our compatriot living in Haifa.
On May 21, 2013, at his installation, he found a signal of “transcendent amplitude” (a message in RES and Emergencies Ministry 3854), which signaled that the KaY wave was traveling to the Far East and could manifest itself on May 24–25 as a powerful earthquake, including, in Kamchatka. The corresponding notification was sent by the researcher to the chairman of the RES, EMERCOM of Russia, colleagues on May 22, 2013 ... "
NOTE: (In this case, a decrease in the accuracy of the forecast is due to the fact that the wave was detected only on two operating stations that still remained in Israel - almost 10 thousand kilometres from the epicentre of the future earthquake.) At the same time, anomalies in Haifa are ahead of the earthquake in the Kinneret zone by 1 hour, and by 2 hours on the Dead Sea region.
Therefore, only the Global Network would allow predicting a strong earthquake several days before the start of the shocks and with high accuracy sufficient to apply the forecast to the emergency departments.
Comment: "About the form and ownership of the Global Network":
At a meeting on 05/30/2019, Amir Yahav, Chairman of the Israeli earthquake preparation commission, said that the forecast stations should belong to the state and be located in the country ...
This contradicts the core idea of creating a global forecast network:
In the case of Israel (which is relatively small), it is realistically possible to establish a network of no more than a dozen stations and they will not give an advance time of more than 1 - 2 hours, which is significantly inferior to a complete global network.
At the same time, the possibilities of large countries, such as Russia, China, the USA, etc. make it possible to establish a sufficiently large network of stations for forecasting to neighboring countries. Of course, this should bring income to the country performing such an important task.
This confirms the idea that the Global Network should be a Public-Private Association, where work on station maintenance, interpretation, issuing an accurate forecast should be paid for from the budgets of interested countries and public international organizations. This should be a research and production enterprise working under contracts. And it cannot be owned of one state only. The legal basis for the distribution of property may be the patents of the author.
We discuss the Global Network project and the author accepts proposals and additions to the project.